The question is not “Will Starmer be gone?”, but “When will Starmer be gone?”.

That Starmer is on shaky ground can not be in any doubt.  His approval rating – and that of his tearful Chancellor – is the worst of any Prime Minister since records began in Margaret Thatcher’s time. And this is reflected in opinion polls which all project a Labour wipe-out greater than that of the Conservatives in 2024.

Every Labour MP knows this and cabinet members like Wes Streeting have seen the writing on the wall as his emails to Mandelson have revealed.

So the clock is ticking for Starmer’s leadership.

He was saved yesterday by the realisation that had he announced his decision to quit, the Labour Party would be embroiled in vitriolic leadership elections involving their MPs, trade unions, and membership through the imminent Gorton & Denton by-election on the 26^th of this month and the local elections on May 7^th.  The results of both are expected to be dire for Labour, but they would conceivably be far worse if Labour were engaged in a life and death struggle for the leadership.

It is possible that the by-election this month will trigger further leadership speculation for Starmer, but Gorton & Denton is already lost in most Labour MPs’ minds and they will still be focussed on the May local elections.

So my prediction is that if Labour do as disastrously in May as the polls suggest, there will then be an immediate challenge to Starmer with the aim for a new PM to be in place by the time of the Labour Party Conference at the end of September.